GI

Forecast Arena

Visual-first forecast vs reality board. Read-only, ledger-backed, no public accuracy claim.

Data: auditable event & forecast ledgers

2026-07-02
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Current situation

What the system expected, what actually happened, and what is due next.

critical 3/4 top-level axes
Data freshness Data current as of 2026-07-02T06:28:45Z Data: auditable event & forecast ledgers
What changed today 2026-07-02
Next checkpoint display only
Next review date —
Forecasts due next
No upcoming forecast review
Latest news & signals Latest-run ledger events · daily, not live Latest scan Coverage partial 3/4
Source baskets2 single-source11 propaganda risk0 caveats12 Sample35/50
Risk Pulse
critical not a probability
Risk axes 4
Main drivers 3
Watch Tracks 0
Global critical up
Middle East critical flat
Israel critical flat
Finance medium flat
Changed today 1/4 Evidence: medium 2 single-source drivers
Main drivers
event-20260702-001 · security · high event-20260702-002 · security · high event-20260619-003 · markets · medium
open risk dashboard
Reality Track

Beirut/Dahiyeh strike broke threshold

Drift +0.58
No public forecasting-accuracy claim
forecast-20260611-002 · p=0.62 · outcome=0.5 · drift=+0.12 forecast-20260611-003 · p=0.58 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.42 forecast-20260611-004 · p=0.58 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.42 forecast-20260618-001 · p=0.64 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.36 forecast-20260618-002 · p=0.68 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.32 forecast-20260618-003 · p=0.62 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.38 forecast-20260618-004 · p=0.66 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.34 probability band reality markers 0.5 0.0 1.0
Model metrics terminal n=35 Mean Brier 0.1428
open reality dashboard

Resolved Tracks

Details are drilldown-only; first screen remains visual.
DRIFT check 2026-06-21

US / Iran · markets

Probability 66.0%
Outcome 1
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forecast / reality text
Forecast
  • Brent crude will remain below $90/bbl through 2026-06-21 as the U.S.-Iran MOU/Hormuz reopening path is tested
  • Fails only if the MOU collapses, Hormuz traffic is again credibly blocked, or a major Gulf/oil-export infrastructure…
Reality
  • Recorded EIA Brent spot values stayed below the $90 threshold during the forecast window: 2026-06-15..19 at 84.36, 80.50…
  • No checked source established a before-window MOU collapse, full Hormuz blockage, or major Gulf/oil-export infrastructure…
DRIFT check 2026-06-21

Israel / Iran · security

Probability 62.0%
Outcome 1
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forecast / reality text
Forecast
  • The direct Israel-Iran lane will remain below a renewed verified Iranian missile/drone strike that causes mass casualties in…
  • Lebanon/Hezbollah incidents alone do not fail this forecast
  • Fails only if they trigger direct Iran-Israel kinetic actions.
Reality
  • Reviewed public evidence did not show a renewed verified Iranian mass-casualty strike on Israeli population centers or…
  • Lebanon/Hezbollah incidents remained adjacent and did not fail this forecast under its own wording.
DRIFT check 2026-06-21

US / Iran · diplomacy

Probability 68.0%
Outcome 1
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forecast / reality text
Forecast
  • The U.S.-Iran MOU will remain formally in force through 2026-06-21: neither side will officially withdraw from the MOU
  • No verified direct U.S.-Iran kinetic strike cycle will resume before the check date
  • If Lebanon/Hormuz/nuclear terms remain disputed.
Reality
  • Public checks showed the U.S.-Iran MOU remained formally alive through the 2026-06-21 check: talks and implementation…
  • No verified resumed direct U.S.-Iran kinetic strike cycle was established before the check date.
  • Post-window Hormuz/U.S.-Iran strike signals are material but after the forecast window.
DRIFT check 2026-06-21

Israel / Hezbollah · security

Probability 64.0%
Outcome 1
open full view
forecast / reality text
Forecast
  • No named Lebanon pilot zone, including Beaufort Castle/Ridge, will be publicly verified as under exclusive Lebanese Armed…
  • If the U.S.-Iran MOU continues to reference Lebanon or pressure Israel/Hezbollah toward restraint.
Reality
  • Reviewed public evidence still showed Lebanon pilot zones as planned/contested, southern Lebanon violence and Israeli…
  • No named LAF-only Hezbollah-free pilot zone publicly verified by the 2026-06-21 check.
  • Post-window Lebanon deterioration is material for risk state

Watch Tracks

0 open/due

No open/due forecast watches.

Read-only analytical view built from auditable event, forecast and review ledgers. It makes no public accuracy claim and gives no emergency guidance - official alerts decide action.