Studio VAGUS · Geopolitical Risk Intelligence — Forecast Arena (beta)
Forecast Track Record
Every reviewed forecast is shown with its original probability, terminal outcome and Brier score. No old forecast is rewritten.
35Forecasts logged
35Terminal reviews
31Hits
1Partial
3Misses
0.1428Mean Brier
How to read this
- Probability. Every forecast is registered in advance with a numeric probability: 0.70 means the system gave the outcome a seven-in-ten chance. The number is locked before the outcome and never edited.
- Terminal review. On the check date the forecast is scored once against its pre-registered failure condition. That score is permanent.
- Hit / partial / miss. Hit: the claim held. Miss: the failure condition fired. Partial: the outcome landed in between — it is used rarely and shown like any other result.
- Brier score. The distance between the stated probability and what actually happened: 0.0000 is perfect, 0.2500 is what always answering "50/50" would earn, 1.0000 is the worst possible. Lower is better.
- Resolution. Each claim states in advance what evidence counts and what would falsify it, so scoring is mechanical, not retrospective judgement.
Кратко по-русски: вероятность фиксируется заранее и не редактируется; на дату проверки прогноз один раз получает исход hit / partial / miss по заранее записанному условию провала; Brier — расстояние между заявленной вероятностью и фактом (0 — идеально, 0.25 — уровень постоянного ответа «50/50», ниже — лучше).
Reviewed Forecasts
| Reviewed (made → scored) | Domain | Pre-registered claim | p | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026-06-18 → 2026-07-02forecast-20260618-001 |
security 72h |
No named Lebanon pilot zone, including Beaufort Castle/Ridge, will be publicly verified as under exclusive Lebanese Armed Forces control and free of Hezbollah armed presence by 2026-06-21, even if the U.S.-Iran MOU continues to reference Lebanon or pressure Israel/Hezbollah toward restraint. | 0.64 | hit | 0.1296 |
2026-06-18 → 2026-07-02forecast-20260618-002 |
diplomacy 72h |
The U.S.-Iran MOU will remain formally in force through 2026-06-21: neither side will officially withdraw from the MOU, and no verified direct U.S.-Iran kinetic strike cycle will resume before the check date, even if Lebanon/Hormuz/nuclear terms remain disputed. | 0.68 | hit | 0.1024 |
2026-06-18 → 2026-07-02forecast-20260618-003 |
security 72h |
The direct Israel-Iran lane will remain below a renewed verified Iranian missile/drone strike that causes mass casualties in Israeli population centers and below a sustained daily Israel-Iran combat phase through 2026-06-21; Lebanon/Hezbollah incidents alone do not fail this forecast unless they trigger direct Iran-Israel kinetic actions. | 0.62 | hit | 0.1444 |
2026-06-18 → 2026-07-02forecast-20260618-004 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $90/bbl through 2026-06-21 as the U.S.-Iran MOU/Hormuz reopening path is tested, unless the MOU collapses, Hormuz traffic is again credibly blocked, or a major Gulf/oil-export infrastructure supply-loss event occurs. | 0.66 | hit | 0.1156 |
2026-06-11 → 2026-06-18forecast-20260611-001 |
security 72h |
No named Israel-Lebanon pilot zone, including Beaufort Castle/Ridge, will be publicly verified as under exclusive Lebanese Armed Forces control and free of Hezbollah armed presence by 2026-06-14, even if framework diplomacy or monitoring language continues. | 0.72 | hit | 0.0784 |
2026-06-11 → 2026-06-18forecast-20260611-002 |
diplomacy 72h |
The U.S.-Iran track will not produce a jointly acknowledged restored framework, document or memorandum of understanding by 2026-06-14, even after Trump's cancellation of scheduled strikes; talks, mediator messages or unilateral claims may continue without a mutually confirmed text. | 0.62 | partial | 0.0144 |
2026-06-11 → 2026-06-18forecast-20260611-003 |
security 72h |
The direct Israel-Iran lane will remain below a verified mass-casualty Iranian strike on Israeli population centers and below a sustained daily Israel-Iran combat phase through 2026-06-14; alerts, interceptions, isolated launches or single-day retaliatory strikes may still occur. | 0.58 | hit | 0.1764 |
2026-06-11 → 2026-06-18forecast-20260611-004 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-14 despite Kharg/Hormuz threats and U.S.-Iran escalation, unless verified oil-export infrastructure damage, a complete zero-transit Hormuz halt, or another major supply-loss event occurs. | 0.58 | hit | 0.1764 |
2026-06-08 → 2026-06-11forecast-20260608-001 |
security 72h |
No fully operational, mutually acknowledged Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will be in effect by 2026-06-11: Hezbollah compliance with South Litani evacuation will remain unverified, or Israeli strike/ground-operation freedom will persist, or no joint in-effect implementation statement will exist. | 0.82 | hit | 0.0324 |
2026-06-08 → 2026-06-11forecast-20260608-002 |
security 72h |
The renewed direct Israel-Iran exchange will remain below a verified mass-casualty strike on Israeli population centers and below a sustained daily Israel-Iran combat phase through 2026-06-11: further missile/drone exchanges, interceptions or retaliatory strikes may recur, but no verified mass-casualty Iranian strike on Israeli population centers and no confirmed continuous daily Israel-Iran kinetic phase will be established. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
2026-06-08 → 2026-06-11forecast-20260608-003 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-11 despite the renewed Israel-Iran exchange and severe Hormuz disruption, unless a new verified mass-casualty Gulf/Israel strike, complete zero-transit Hormuz halt or major supply-loss event occurs. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
2026-06-07 → 2026-06-10forecast-20260607-001 |
security 72h |
No fully operational, mutually acknowledged Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will be in effect by 2026-06-10: Hezbollah compliance with South Litani evacuation will remain unverified, or Israeli strike/ground-operation freedom will persist, or no joint in-effect implementation statement will exist. | 0.72 | hit | 0.0784 |
2026-06-07 → 2026-06-10forecast-20260607-002 |
security 72h |
No verified Israeli strike on Beirut or Dahiyeh will occur by 2026-06-10, even though southern-Lebanon strikes/operations may continue. | 0.58 | miss | 0.3364 |
2026-06-07 → 2026-06-10forecast-20260607-003 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-10 despite severe Hormuz disruption, unless a new verified mass-casualty Gulf strike, complete zero-transit Hormuz halt or major supply-loss event occurs. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
2026-06-06 → 2026-06-09forecast-20260606-001 |
security 72h |
The U.S.-Iran/Gulf exchange will remain below a mass-casualty or sustained-daily-war threshold through 2026-06-09: isolated missile/drone exchanges, interceptions and retaliatory strikes may recur, but no verified mass-casualty Iranian strike on Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE or Qatar and no confirmed continuous daily U.S.-Iran kinetic phase will be established. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
2026-06-06 → 2026-06-09forecast-20260606-002 |
security 72h |
No verified Israeli strike on Beirut or Dahiyeh will occur by 2026-06-09, even though Israeli strikes/operations in southern Lebanon and ceasefire-implementation disputes may continue. | 0.58 | miss | 0.3364 |
2026-06-06 → 2026-06-09forecast-20260606-003 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-09 despite severe Hormuz disruption, unless a new verified mass-casualty Gulf strike, total zero-transit Hormuz halt or major supply-loss event occurs. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
2026-06-05 → 2026-06-08forecast-20260605-001 |
security 72h |
No fully operational, mutually acknowledged Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will be in effect by 2026-06-08: Hezbollah will not have verifiably accepted/implemented the South Litani evacuation condition, and at least some Israeli strike/ground-operation freedom or Hezbollah fire/attack claims will persist. | 0.75 | hit | 0.0625 |
2026-06-05 → 2026-06-08forecast-20260605-002 |
diplomacy 72h |
The U.S.-Iran track will not produce a jointly announced concrete restored framework/MOU or permanent peace agreement by 2026-06-08; communications may continue, but the process remains stalled, contested or Lebanon-conditioned. | 0.70 | hit | 0.0900 |
2026-06-05 → 2026-06-08forecast-20260605-003 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-08, despite Hormuz still being effectively closed/restricted, unless a new verified mass-casualty Gulf strike, total transit halt, or major supply-loss event occurs. | 0.65 | hit | 0.1225 |
2026-06-04 → 2026-06-07forecast-20260604-001 |
security 72h |
The June 4 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire/pilot-zones framework will NOT become a fully operational comprehensive halt by 2026-06-07: at least one of these remains true - Hezbollah has not verifiably evacuated the South Litani Sector, Israel continues strikes or ground operations south of its Yellow Line/buffer zone, or no mutually acknowledged implementation statement exists. | 0.65 | hit | 0.1225 |
2026-06-04 → 2026-06-07forecast-20260604-002 |
diplomacy 72h |
No first pilot zone, including a possible Beaufort Castle/Ridge zone, will be publicly verified as under exclusive Lebanese Armed Forces control and free of Hezbollah presence by 2026-06-07. | 0.70 | hit | 0.0900 |
2026-06-04 → 2026-06-07forecast-20260604-003 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-07, despite the Hormuz disruption and Lebanon-framework uncertainty, unless a verified new complete Hormuz transit halt or major Gulf mass-casualty/supply-loss event occurs. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
2026-06-03 → 2026-06-06forecast-20260603-001 |
security 72h |
The June 2 U.S.-Iran Gulf exchange will remain a contained tit-for-tat through 2026-06-06: no verified mass-casualty Iranian strike on a Gulf state (Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE or Qatar) and no sustained new daily U.S.-Iran combat phase (the largely-intercepted, no-mass-casualty pattern holds). | 0.60 | hit | 0.1600 |
2026-06-03 → 2026-06-06forecast-20260603-002 |
security 72h |
The partial Beirut-axis halt will hold through 2026-06-06: Israel will not conduct a verified strike on Beirut or its southern suburbs (Dahiyeh), even as Israeli operations and strikes continue in southern Lebanon. | 0.60 | hit | 0.1600 |
2026-06-03 → 2026-06-06forecast-20260603-003 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-06 despite the June 2 Gulf escalation, holding in the ~$90s, absent a verified complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a major new supply loss. | 0.60 | hit | 0.1600 |
2026-06-02 → 2026-06-05forecast-20260602-001 |
energy 72h |
Despite the Tasnim/IRGC-linked threat, Iran will NOT carry out a verified complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz (no credibly confirmed halt of commercial tanker transits) by 2026-06-05. | 0.80 | hit | 0.0400 |
2026-06-02 → 2026-06-05forecast-20260602-002 |
diplomacy 72h |
The U.S.-Iran negotiation track will remain suspended, contested or stalled through 2026-06-05; no jointly announced resumption with a concrete restored framework/MOU will emerge. | 0.65 | hit | 0.1225 |
2026-06-02 → 2026-06-05forecast-20260602-003 |
security 72h |
Despite Trump's halt announcement, no comprehensive, mutually-acknowledged Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will be in effect by 2026-06-05: Israeli strikes/operations in southern Lebanon will continue and Israel will not publicly confirm a binding ceasefire (at most a partial, Beirut-axis de-escalation holds). | 0.70 | hit | 0.0900 |
2026-06-01 → 2026-06-04forecast-20260601-001 |
security 72h |
Following Netanyahu's expansion order, Israel will be credibly reported (IDF/AP/Reuters/ToI) to have advanced ground forces into at least one additional named locality north of the Litani beyond the already-held Beaufort Ridge / Wadi al-Saluki arc by 2026-06-04. | 0.55 | miss | 0.3025 |
2026-06-01 → 2026-06-04forecast-20260601-002 |
diplomacy 72h |
The June 2-3 U.S.-hosted Israel-Lebanon talks will end without a publicly announced Israeli withdrawal or binding operational halt; they will instead continue, stall, or yield only a framework/extension by 2026-06-04. | 0.72 | hit | 0.0784 |
2026-06-01 → 2026-06-04forecast-20260601-003 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-04, holding the May deal-optimism pullback rather than returning to the April-May spike, absent a deal collapse or a new Hormuz incident. | 0.70 | hit | 0.0900 |
2026-05-31 → 2026-06-03forecast-20260531-001 |
security 72h |
Israel will retain a visible military presence on or around Beaufort Ridge and/or expand nearby operations around Wadi al-Saluki/Nabatieh through 2026-06-03; no verified withdrawal from Beaufort Ridge before the check date. | 0.70 | hit | 0.0900 |
2026-05-31 → 2026-06-03forecast-20260531-002 |
diplomacy 72h |
UNSC/diplomatic pressure over Lebanon will intensify within 72h, but will not produce an immediate Israeli operational halt or verified Beaufort pullback by 2026-06-03. | 0.65 | hit | 0.1225 |
2026-05-31 → 2026-06-03forecast-20260531-003 |
markets 72h |
No clean public U.S.-Iran 60-day MOU including durable Strait of Hormuz reopening will be announced by 2026-06-03; negotiations will remain conditional, delayed, or partially disputed. | 0.60 | hit | 0.1600 |
Boundaries
- Forecasts are pre-registered and never rewritten after the outcome.
- Terminal reviews can be hit, partial or miss; every miss remains visible.
- Brier scores are shown as scoring math, not as a public accuracy percentage.
- This page is not emergency guidance and not a prediction guarantee.