Studio VAGUS · Geopolitical Risk Intelligence — Forecast Arena (beta)
Weekly Brief
Free weekly summary built from the same audited ledgers as the dashboard. The signup form opens after a separate email-service review; nothing is collected yet.
Weekly Brief
A free weekly email: what materially changed, which forecasts resolved and how they scored, what stays open — and what the system got wrong.
Еженедельный бриф
Бесплатное еженедельное письмо: что существенно изменилось, какие прогнозы закрылись и с каким результатом, что остаётся открытым — и где система ошиблась.
Sample issue excerpt · Пример выпуска
From the week 2026-06-26 — 2026-07-02. Issues ship in English and Russian; this excerpt is from the English edition. · Выпуски выходят на английском и русском; фрагмент ниже — из английской версии.
What materially changed
- 2026-07-02 — Post-window Lebanon implementation deterioration keeps the frozen risk state stale (high, unconfirmed)
- 2026-07-02 — Post-window U.S.-Iran/Hormuz escalation keeps the frozen risk state stale (high, unconfirmed)
Forecasts scored this week
- 2026-07-02 — “No named Lebanon pilot zone, including Beaufort Castle/Ridge, will be publicly verified as under exclusive Lebanese…” — registered at p=0.64, outcome: hit
- 2026-07-02 — “The U.S.-Iran MOU will remain formally in force through 2026-06-21: neither side will officially withdraw from the MOU…” — registered at p=0.68, outcome: hit
What the system got wrong
No misses this week. When they happen, they are shown here, not hidden.
Until the list opens · Пока список не открыт
The dashboard and track record update on this site without any subscription, and you can reach Studio VAGUS through the contact page.
Дашборд и история прогнозов обновляются на сайте и без подписки, а связаться со Studio VAGUS можно через страницу контактов.
Teams: custom briefings and private dashboards are available as a service — start from the contact page. · Для команд: кастомные брифинги и приватные дашборды доступны как услуга — начните со страницы контактов.